The cost of America's $6 billion prisoner exchange with Iran

The Biden administration is careful not to create expectations regarding the prisoner exchange agreement with Iran, aiming to emphasize that such "humanitarian" efforts are separate from the nuclear issue. Immediately after the successful exchange, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, indicating that the situation is not merely a simple prisoner swap. The fact that the exchange also involves the release of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue frozen in South Korea for humanitarian purchases shows that it is more than just a prisoner exchange. The U.S. government, perhaps to avoid any political cost domestically, is both imposing new sanctions and claiming that it has no connection to the stalled nuclear negotiation process.

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The cost of America's 6 billion prisoner exchange with Iran
Why Is It So Hard to Reach a New Nuclear

Why Is It So Hard to Reach a New Nuclear Deal with Iran?

Even if a deal is reached, there is no guarantee that Iran's Revolutionary Guards’ military operations will decrease in the Middle East.

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Unless the U.S. policy toward Iran changes, it seems difficult for the EU and its member states to open a new page in relations with Iran

Washington's gradual disengagement strategy from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has taken a new shape as news continues to arrive from Vienna on the renewed talks related to Iran's nuclear file.

Since the election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, almost all countries in the world have had to restructure their foreign policies. To most observers, the Trump administration's tenure was an exceptional period due to Donald Trump's unconventional approach to government.

Some influential figures in Washington and Brussels are continuing to advise authorities on both sides of the Atlantic to sideline, or even contain Turkey in the defense architecture of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the Black Sea region and southeastern Europe.

Biden on horns of a dilemma for Iranian nuclear deal

Biden as a candidate promised to take the U.S. back to the deal and was confident of achieving it; however, his time in office has proved that this won't be an easy task

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Biden on horns of a dilemma for Iranian nuclear deal
Assassination of Fakhrizadeh Another indication of systemic crisis

Assassination of Fakhrizadeh: Another indication of systemic crisis

The current international system is in deep crisis because its main actors, including the U.S. and many other Western countries, do not respect its principles. Most Western countries nowadays have put aside the main principles of the international system, namely liberal democracy and the liberal economy.

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Turkey called back its research vessel Oruç Reis to port in order to support efforts by Germany and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to facilitate dialogue with Greece. As Ankara and Athens continue to exchange statements, tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean will be discussed at the Special European Council on Sept. 24-25.

After a long COVID-19 interval, the two U.S. presidential candidates launched their campaigns and started to meet voters. Trump campaign prefers to organize large rallies in the battleground states, despite a rise in the number of COVID-19 infections there. Joe Biden's campaign, on the other hand, chose to organize small gatherings as per social distancing rules and broadcast the former vice president's remarks online.

Last week this column addressed how the coronavirus can change the debates and domestic dynamics of the U.S. elections. The crisis management and leadership in handling the outbreak, the economy – in particular, unemployment rates – and the state of the health care sector in the U.S. were cited as potential issues that may arise or be amplified as a result of the pandemic.

It has become almost customary for every U.S. administration to propose a plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian problem in the Middle East. For some, like the Bill Clinton administration, it became almost a legacy issue. The administration and its president spent countless days and weeks on the process and the failure of the peace process, which they deemed the best possible deal, upset them deeply.

The targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the deputy chief of Hashd al-Shaabi forces in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandisi, is a game-changer for Middle Eastern politics. Immediately after the attack that killed Soleimani, Iranian leadership threatened the U.S. and its allies in the region. Iran fired missiles at two American bases in Iraq in retaliation to the assassination of Soleimani. No casualties were declared in Iran's retaliatory attacks. Leaders of both countries escalated the tension, but they were careful not to let the crisis get out of control.

The killing of Qasem Soleimani and his close associates in an American airstrike in Baghdad Thursday night was without question one of the most significant developments in the Middle East over the last several years – significant in terms of the profile of its target as well as the unexpectedness of such an attack.

The U.N. has unfortunately turned out to be a platform where the significance of multilateralism and global cooperation is increasingly ignored or even damaged

Saudi Arabia's Aramco, one of the biggest companies in the world, was hit by armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones. A total of 18 drones and seven missiles were launched against the Saudi infrastructure. The attack was the worst on Middle Eastern oil facilities since Saddam Hussein set fire to Kuwait's oil wells in 1990. The attack knocked out 5% of the world's oil supply, and oil prices increased almost 20% as a result. Even though the attacks were claimed by Houthi rebels, Saudi Arabian officials blamed Iran, at least for providing weapons to the Houthis. Some officials even claimed that Iran was directly involved in the attacks.

This week's attack on the facilities of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, was no mere skirmish among proxies. Iran has allegedly fired missiles, loaded on drones, to strike at the heart of the Saudi oil industry. Although Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed the attack, already some fingers are pointing to Tehran. Hence a series of questions: have tensions in the Gulf, which have been escalating since May 2018, already spun out of control? Is the policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran giving way to war? Why did U.S. President Donald Trump escalate tensions right after sacking John Bolton, his hawkish national security adviser? What will be the Trump administration's military response to an attack that it considers a casus belli? As world leaders pack their bags for the United Nations General Assembly's opening session, the world is still trying to answer those questions.

To save himself from more criticism over the increasing number of 'unappointed positions' in Washington, President Trump has been rushing to find a man for the foreign and national security desk since John Bolton's ‘sudden' departure

Pentagon officials continue to maintain the same dysfunctional and hostile policies against Turkey. They are now using Turkey's purchase of the S-400 air defense systems from Russia as a pretext to pressure and threaten Turkey. The Pentagon's recently resigned chief Patrick Shanahan had warned his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar about economic sanctions and the abandonment of military cooperation between the two NATO allies.

A few weeks ago, this column detailed how, in the last two decades, U.S. administrations have periodically made war plans and debated conflict scenarios. Both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations did it, and now the Donald Trump administration has come to a similar point of deliberating a military response against Iran.

It is now almost a ritual of U.S. administrations to escalate tension with Iran. At least in the last three administrations we have seen similar forms of escalations between the two countries. During the Bush administration, Iran became part of the axis of evil and there were speculations and rumors that if things do not go so terribly in Iraq the next target will be Iran.