Cease-fire in Lebanon: Catalyst for regional shifts?

After approximately 14 months of conflict, a cease-fire between Israeli and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Nov. 27. Mediated by the United States and France, the cease-fire is fundamentally based on the revival of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. According to this agreement, Hezbollah forces will withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israeli forces will retreat south of the Blue Line. This process is expected to be completed within 60 days.

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Cease-fire in Lebanon Catalyst for regional shifts
Will Iran-Israel tensions lead to full-scale war

Will Iran-Israel tensions lead to full-scale war?

Tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, raising fears of full-scale war amid ongoing regional conflicts

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A full year ago this week, I was in Ankara for a meeting. When Hamas launched its attacks on October 7, the Palestinian issue quickly became the main agenda. It became evident that Israel was facing significant security vulnerabilities, and there was much discussion about the timing of Hamas's actions. There was a consensus that Israel would respond disproportionately. It was clear that the conflict between Israel and Hamas was entering a new phase, and discussions were underway about the steps needed for a political resolution after the conflict. Looking back a year later, it’s hard to believe that no one expected Israel to shift into a "perpetual war" mode by rendering Gaza unlivable and extending the conflict to other countries.

On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian group Hamas launched a major attack on Israeli settlements near Gaza. This unexpected operation drew global attention and led to a series of responses from Israeli officials and their allies. Following this event, the Middle East experienced a significant escalation in regional conflicts, particularly involving Hezbollah, a Lebanese group with close ties to Iran.

The comprehensive and effective attack launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the al-Aqsa Flood Operation, has become a turning point not only in the Palestinian-Israeli question and the Middle Eastern balance of power but also in modern world history.

Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement did not meet their desired level. However, they announced that they would send a delegation to Doha for negotiations. Additionally, they indicated that the Rafah operation would proceed as planned, showing no intention to heed Washington's demands. Despite CIA Director Bill Burns being in the region for the Doha talks and the Biden administration's clear opposition to the Rafah operation, the Netanyahu government shows no signs of backing down. Reports of the Biden administration halting arms shipments to Israel, thus delaying Netanyahu's Rafah operation, had made Hamas' acceptance of the ceasefire a critical turning point. However, Netanyahu's efforts to both continue and expand the conflict from the outset pose the biggest obstacle to ceasefire efforts.

The 'tragedy' of US policy vis-a-vis Israel

The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.

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The 'tragedy' of US policy vis-a-vis Israel
Netanyahu's Iran card

Netanyahu's Iran card...

In response to Israel's striking of Iran's consulate in Syria, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement of "retaliation will be given" has heightened the possibility of the regional proxy war escalating into direct conflict. Since October 7th, Netanyahu has been attempting to expand the conflict by targeting Hamas and Shia militia objectives in both Beirut and Syria. The relatively controlled continuation of the "regional war" relied on Iran and Hezbollah refraining from militarily supporting Hamas. However, Khamenei's remarks suggesting that striking the Iranian consulate would mean targeting Iranian soil have also put Washington on high alert.

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The latest developments in Gaza have forced many states to reconsider their policies toward Israel’s genocidal attacks, the suffering of the people of Gaza and the resistance of the Gazan people, which will continue to shape not only regional but also global politics.

Although Israel’s genocidal attacks and the suffering of the people of Gaza continue to occupy the main agenda of world politics, there have been important developments in Palestine recently. There are many efforts to divert the attention of people and governments from Israel's brutality. However, none of these attempts have succeeded in taking Gaza off the agenda. Even the brutal terrorist attack in Moscow did not distract the international community.

The 'immediate ceasefire resolution' issued by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) due to the United States' abstention indicates that the Biden administration's political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu persists. Despite the White House emphasizing that the decision is not binding and that there are no changes in policy, Netanyahu canceled the visit of the delegation he planned to send to Washington immediately after the UNGA decision. The fact that the Biden administration, which has been diplomatically protecting Israel with its veto power since October 7th, chose to abstain this time suggests that the crisis in bilateral relations has reached its peak. While Netanyahu may lean towards Trump, who has advocated for ending the conflict, Trump's remarks have increased American pressure.

It is clear that Tel Aviv, which never again wants to see a similar attack to that of October 7, does not care about international reactions. A possible ground operation in Gaza, the opening of a new front by Hezbollah, new attacks in Syria, and further developments in the West Bank are among the hot topics on the current agenda. Our region may experience the horrific repercussions of ambitious deterrence.

Israel has been subjecting Gaza to a total blockade and heavy bombardment for more than a week. While the non-Western world speaks out against those measures, U.S. President Joe Biden offered his unconditional support to Tel Aviv – a development that threatens to cause the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to result in more devastation.