Hamas' acceptance of ceasefire and Israel's Rafah operation

Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement did not meet their desired level. However, they announced that they would send a delegation to Doha for negotiations. Additionally, they indicated that the Rafah operation would proceed as planned, showing no intention to heed Washington's demands. Despite CIA Director Bill Burns being in the region for the Doha talks and the Biden administration's clear opposition to the Rafah operation, the Netanyahu government shows no signs of backing down. Reports of the Biden administration halting arms shipments to Israel, thus delaying Netanyahu's Rafah operation, had made Hamas' acceptance of the ceasefire a critical turning point. However, Netanyahu's efforts to both continue and expand the conflict from the outset pose the biggest obstacle to ceasefire efforts.

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Hamas' acceptance of ceasefire and Israel's Rafah operation
The 'tragedy' of US policy vis-a-vis Israel

The 'tragedy' of US policy vis-a-vis Israel

The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.

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In response to Israel's striking of Iran's consulate in Syria, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement of "retaliation will be given" has heightened the possibility of the regional proxy war escalating into direct conflict. Since October 7th, Netanyahu has been attempting to expand the conflict by targeting Hamas and Shia militia objectives in both Beirut and Syria. The relatively controlled continuation of the "regional war" relied on Iran and Hezbollah refraining from militarily supporting Hamas. However, Khamenei's remarks suggesting that striking the Iranian consulate would mean targeting Iranian soil have also put Washington on high alert.

The latest developments in Gaza have forced many states to reconsider their policies toward Israel’s genocidal attacks, the suffering of the people of Gaza and the resistance of the Gazan people, which will continue to shape not only regional but also global politics.

Although Israel’s genocidal attacks and the suffering of the people of Gaza continue to occupy the main agenda of world politics, there have been important developments in Palestine recently. There are many efforts to divert the attention of people and governments from Israel's brutality. However, none of these attempts have succeeded in taking Gaza off the agenda. Even the brutal terrorist attack in Moscow did not distract the international community.

The 'immediate ceasefire resolution' issued by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) due to the United States' abstention indicates that the Biden administration's political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu persists. Despite the White House emphasizing that the decision is not binding and that there are no changes in policy, Netanyahu canceled the visit of the delegation he planned to send to Washington immediately after the UNGA decision. The fact that the Biden administration, which has been diplomatically protecting Israel with its veto power since October 7th, chose to abstain this time suggests that the crisis in bilateral relations has reached its peak. While Netanyahu may lean towards Trump, who has advocated for ending the conflict, Trump's remarks have increased American pressure.

Will Israel implement the UNSC Gaza cease-fire resolution?

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has passed a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza for the month of Ramadan. The 14 members council members voted in favor of the resolution, which was proposed by the 10 elected members of the council. Only the United States abstained from the vote. After the vote, there was an unusual round of applause in the council chamber, showing how much the international community wants the bloodshed to end.

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Will Israel implement the UNSC Gaza cease-fire resolution
The Netanyahu predicament among Israel's allies in Washington

The Netanyahu predicament among Israel's allies in Washington

In 2015, Netanyahu came to Washington to dynamite Obama's deal with Iran and made a speech in Congress. Obama was trying to delay Congress's new sanctions to make a nuclear deal with Iran. Netanyahu accepted the invitation of Republicans in the House of Representatives and did not coordinate his visit with Obama's White House. Netanyahu's speech at the session, attended by both wings of Congress, was repeatedly applauded. Netanyahu, who tried to end Obama's nuclear talks with Iran by imposing sanctions on Iran by Republicans and some Democrats in Congress, failed. Vice President Biden, who sat behind Netanyahu during his speech to Congress, seems to be facing a similar Netanyahu problem these days.

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It has been more than five and a half months that Israel has continued its genocidal operation against the innocent civilians of the Gaza Strip. Crimes committed by Israel are protested worldwide, especially by Western citizens. Ironically, the people of Muslim countries remained silent against the Israeli atrocities. Besides the reluctance of most Muslim governments, the Arab governments in particular, it seems that Muslim people also remain largely indifferent to the suffering of the Gazan people.

Friday marked the fifth day of Ramadan. Unfortunately, there is still no cease-fire in Gaza, and Israel continues to kill Palestinians waiting for food supplies. Earlier this week, Israeli troops killed six Palestinians and injured 83 others as they waited in line to receive a bag of flour. That was not the first time, and it won’t be the last.

U.S. President Joe Biden recently said that they are working on a six-week emergency cease-fire, describing Rafah as a red line. Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to conduct military operations in that area. The Israeli army perpetrating atrocities in Rafah, where 1.4 million Palestinians have been starving during Ramadan, would be a new source of shame for the world and the Muslim community. Since the U.S. exerts greater influence over Israel than any other nation, one cannot help but keep an eye on the Biden administration's (in)action.

We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.

President Biden's message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump's message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump's expressions about immigrants 'poisoning' the country's blood, he conveyed the message that the real 'poison' is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.

This paper argues that the al-Aqsa Flood operation launched by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades –the military wing of Hamas– on the morning of October 7 has led to a psychological and epistemological rupture in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Middle East politics as the operation marked a paradigm shift in the philosophy of the resistance. The infiltration of al-Qassam into the occupied territories by land, sea, and air was a clear sign of a change in the strategy of the resistance to continue the active struggle against the aggressive expansionism and aggression of the Zionist Israeli government. In this context, the study tries to frame Operation al-Aqsa Flood and analyze the dimensions of the rupture. Besides this, it will also outline the possible impact of the operation on global and regional politics, considering that the ongoing process will change the political balance in the Middle East.

This article delves into the legal discussions surrounding the crisis unleashed by the military operation launched on October 7, 2023, in Southern Israel by Palestinian forces of the resistance based in Gaza. Israel considered this a “terrorist attack,” asserted the right of self-defense, declared war on Gazans, and started the continuous and indiscriminate bombardment of Gaza. As a result, Gaza has become the new Dresden, in which thousands have been killed and tens of thousands injured. This article is an attempt to answer the following questions to illuminate the legal issues surrounding the current crisis and the broader context of Israel’s legal status as a state and its territorial claims: Was the Palestinian offensive in Southern Israel an instance of terrorism and/or an act of aggression? Which side of the conflict can rightfully claim the right of self-defense? Did Israel commit genocide in Gaza? Do Israel’s statehood and territorial claims rest on firm legal grounds? Is it legally sensible to argue that Israel is a threat to international peace and security?

On Jan. 4, Tehran Times, an international newspaper of Iran, described Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in Iraq, as the “architect” of the new regional geometry in the Middle East. On the same day, a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, Iran, killing more than 100 civilians.

The al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7 created a significant rupture in both the Palestine-Israel issue and the Middle East region. Israel, which was in a very difficult situation in the face of Hamas’ resistance, chose to take out its anger on innocent people. To date, more than 20,000 innocent people, most of whom are children and women, have been martyred by the Israeli occupation forces. Supported by the majority of the Western states, especially the United States, Israel did not refrain from committing war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Gaza. Israel unabashedly violated the basic principles and norms of international law and the decisions of international organizations on the subject.

Important parameter for guarantor model is Israeli government and its expected transformation, which is highly probable in the short term after its clear failures

The Biden administration's performance succumbed to ideological perspectives and strategic blindness.

The year 2011, the beginning of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, has been considered by most observers of the Middle East as a turning point in the history of the region. The process of mass demonstrations, insurgencies and revolutions is generally known as the Arab Spring. It is claimed that the region has entered into a new epoch with this sweeping wave of changes.

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.