In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2022.

Mevlut Cavusoglu says Athens blocks pathway to justice on existing issues

Greece, seeking to expand in Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean seas, sacrificed independence as ‘proxy’ state

'The Cyprus question lies at the center of all Turkish-Greek relations and conflicts. It is a precondition for solving other bilateral issues between the two countries'

NATO in the Turkish-Greek conflict

The U.S. has sent a cache of weapons to Greece, some of which were allocated on the Aegean islands. Thus, the U.S. government has indirectly supported Greece’s breach of international law. According to international treaties, these islands have a demilitarized status.

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NATO in the Turkish-Greek conflict
Mitsotakis' double game and the growing danger

Mitsotakis' double game and the growing danger

Hardly anyone is surprised by the Greek public’s concerns over Türkiye in this climate of fear. Such concerns or fears have been at the heart of Greek politics for many years.

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‘Samarkand and New York summits have shown Türkiye’s determination of following an independent, diversified and global-scale foreign policy’

Anti-Turkish policies and narratives by Greek politicians have been consistently increasing during the current Greek government.

Ankara's policy towards Balkans in line with EU as it wants Balkan nations, including Türkiye, as EU members: Diplomat

Defense deals, lobby card encourage Greek aggression, increase risk of regional entrapments, undermine NATO's foundational element of collective defense

With elections approaching, Mitsotakis hopes to benefit from heightened tensions. However, it is a dangerous game to play

Greece has been playing a dangerous game recently with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. There are several reasons why Greece is choosing to play this high-risk game and increase tensions with its neighbor.

The European Union leaders summit resulted in minor positive steps and a three-month extension. The description of steps for rapprochement as “gradual, proportional and reversible” was a textbook carrot-and-stick routine. Europe’s method of communication, too, was quite familiar.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Azerbaijan and the European Union leaders summit will be the top items on Turkey’s foreign policy agenda this week.

Recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have multiple drivers including the race for exploitation of energy resources, long-standing maritime disputes, and the broader geopolitical competition between regional powers. While Turkey’s recent assertiveness of her rights in the Eastern Mediterranean drew renewed attention to the region, this round of confrontation has been long in the making.