The debate on Turkish foreign policy's "axis," "strategic autonomy" and "normalization" policy was recently revived by Parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO membership, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Cairo trip and Türkiye joining the European Sky Shield Initiative.

The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.

For Türkiye, Turkish-Greek relations have shifted from being solely a security concern to a potential axis of cooperation. While prioritizing its foreign policy within a broader geopolitical context, Ankara has chosen to address issues with Greece pragmatically. Nevertheless, changes in the regional strategic landscape, Türkiye’s rising influence, emerging regional challenges and its geopolitical presence in the Eastern Mediterranean following the maritime jurisdiction agreement with Libya have once again placed the relationship on a competitive and security-focused footing.

The Israeli attacks and violence against the innocent people of the Gaza Strip including children, women, the elderly and the disabled have been continuing for the last two weeks. On the one hand, it has been bombing indiscriminately not only civilian buildings and homes of ordinary people, but also schools, hospitals and places of worship, targeting of which are generally considered war crimes. On the other hand, confining civilian people to a certain area and depriving them of basic needs such as electricity, water, food, and medical needs also constitute crimes against humanity.

The current political climate in Türkiye and Greece, coupled with the shared commitment of political leaders to pursue a positive agenda, presents a crucial opportunity for a more constructive dialogue in Turkish-Greek relations. Having faced the detrimental effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, earthquakes, wildfires, economic crises and the adverse repercussions and risks of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as well as the escalating tensions in Gaza, which could impact the entire region, the two neighboring countries should, at the very least, acknowledge the imperative need to address their issues through sincere political dialogue.

New geopolitical transformations are taking place in world politics as the inability of international organizations, starting with the United Nations, to promote peace and security encourages all countries to prepare for new solutions, cooperations and rivalries.

Panel II: Visions and Means to Manage the Political Incompatibilities of Türkiye and Greece

Panel I: Emerging / Shared Concerns and Prerequisites for Türkiye and Greece

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s trip to New York highlighted the question of United Nations reform anew.

I am in New York City, where the heart of diplomacy is beating, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. This year’s general debate theme, which takes place after the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) expansion and the G-20 summit in New Delhi, India, will be “rebuilding trust and reigniting global solidarity.”

As a reaction to certain regional and global developments, a large-scale normalization process was initiated in the Middle East at the beginning of 2020. As part of this normalization, Türkiye and the Gulf states normalized their relations three years ago to increase their autonomy and effectiveness in international politics.

New Era in Turkish-Greek Relations? | Pathways for a More Constructive Agenda

On 10-12 June 2015, a convention of Balkan think tanks was organized by the SETA Foundation, with financial support of the Turkish Prime Ministry Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB). During the event, researchers from Balkan think tanks discussed various political issues faced by the region and Turkey. This report summarizes the remarks made during the workshop sessions.