While the Biden administration struggles to achieve results in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, it is also trying to prevent the war from spreading to Lebanon. Biden announced that Israel had accepted a ceasefire plan and provided details. However, Netanyahu resisted Washington's pressure, insisting on the goal of completely destroying Hamas. As Israel continued its attacks in Gaza, Hamas also hardened its stance. Instead of exerting real pressure on Israel for a ceasefire, the Biden administration argued that Hamas was the spoiler and sought to leverage the influence of countries like Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey over Hamas.
DIPLOMACY WITHOUT PRESSURE ON ISRAEL
While Blinken's diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire have yet to yield results, Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Talip Sami Abdullah has increased the likelihood of a second front opening. Following Hezbollah's response with hundreds of rockets and drone attacks, the Biden administration sent Special Envoy Amos Hochstein to the region to prevent an Israel-Hezbollah war. With officials like CIA Director Burns, Secretary of State Blinken, and Special Envoy Hochstein frequently dispatched to the region, the Biden administration's foreign policy team appears to be scrambling to manage Israel's actions. Those who believe a major war with Hezbollah is inevitable also see Lebanon's stability under threat.
In early May, the Biden administration managed to defuse rising tensions with Iran through back-channel negotiations amid a mutual rocket display. However, it has struggled to achieve results for a ceasefire in Gaza for a long time. The administration tried to pressure Israel by threatening not to send ammunition, but quickly backtracked due to pressure from Republicans and the Israeli lobby at home, approving new arms sales instead. Now, as it intervenes to prevent an Israel-Lebanon war, the administration persists in its policy of trying to incentivize Israel with a new F-15 sale agreement, effectively rewarding it for escalating tensions. By failing to exert pressure on Israel, the Biden administration jeopardizes both the ceasefire and efforts to de-escalate tensions in Lebanon.
MANAGING A REGIONAL WAR
Since the October 7 attacks, I have previously written that we are in a new phase of an undeclared regional war. Israel, aware that the only power capable of limiting its military maneuverability is Washington, always acts from a maximalist position against other actors in the region. Targeting Hamas leaders in Syria and Iranian officials, Israel recently also targeted a Hezbollah leader. Aware that these operations would escalate tensions, Israel knows it will not struggle to convince Washington to give full support. Netanyahu, a skilled politician in getting what he wants from American politics, maintains Washington's support despite pursuing a policy of ethnic cleansing against Palestinians and continuously escalating tensions with Iran and Hezbollah by arguing that they are under existential threat in the region.
The Biden administration, on the other hand, appears incapable of pursuing a comprehensive strategy to eliminate the dynamics of a regional war. Hesitant to even limit the freedom of movement of the Israeli government, Washington tries to manage the conflict environment created by the Netanyahu government's actions through diplomacy. While it should increase its credibility by drawing clear lines for Israel to benefit from the diplomatic capabilities of other countries in the region, it opts for blame-shifting by accusing actors like Hamas and Iran. In other words, the Biden administration, unable to determine and assert its regional policy towards Israel, is left managing the consequences of Netanyahu's policies.
As the November presidential elections approach, it would not be surprising if the Biden administration continues its efforts to 'manage the situation' without presenting a vision or taking critical risks. As the administration reverses its positions, such as stating that Netanyahu must hold elections and that entering Rafah is a red line, it is likely to continue declaring its support for Israel amidst rising tensions with Hezbollah rather than pressuring Israel. With Secretary of State Blinken having made at least eight trips to the region without achieving a ceasefire, the ineffectiveness of American diplomatic efforts is evident. Consequently, the Biden administration's chances of diplomatic success, lacking the courage to apply decisive political pressure on Israel, remain at the mercy of the Netanyahu government.
