Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the landscape of diplomacy and negotiation. While AI has long been associated with computational efficiency, its ability to engage in complex, strategic and cooperative decision-making represents a major shift in international relations. Meta’s CICERO, an AI system that achieved human-level performance in a strategy game named Diplomacy, stands as a landmark development in AI-assisted negotiation and strategic interaction. Alongside similar advances, such as Hagglebots, AI is now being positioned not just as an analytical tool but as a potential actor in diplomatic practice. This shift raises fundamental questions about the future of negotiation, strategic decision-making and the role of AI in global governance.
At the core of these developments lies a deeper question: Can AI truly engage in diplomacy, or is it merely simulating human-like negotiation? The Turing Test, a foundational benchmark for artificial intelligence, provides an essential framework for evaluating AI’s communicative and strategic capabilities. As AI becomes more sophisticated in language processing, trust-building and strategic reasoning, the implications for diplomacy, conflict resolution and international negotiations become increasingly profound.
Evolution of AI in diplomacy
Meta’s CICERO represents a significant departure from traditional AI applications, which have historically excelled in structured environments such as chess or GO but struggled in open-ended, multiagent interactions. Unlike these deterministic settings, diplomacy requires persuasion, alliance formation, and deception management, which make human negotiations both unpredictable and strategic.
In a controlled study of 42-hour games involving 82 human participants, CICERO demonstrated remarkable performance by scoring more than twice the average of human players and ranking among the top 10% of participants who played multiple games. What sets CICERO apart is not just its computational efficiency but its ability to engage in dynamic negotiations, build alliances and anticipate the long-term consequences of its diplomatic actions.
The significance of CICERO extends beyond gaming. It provides a proof of concept for AI-driven diplomacy, where AI could assist in strategic forecasting by predicting alliance stability and geopolitical shifts. It could also support multilateral negotiations by analyzing historical treaties and suggesting optimal diplomatic strategies. Furthermore, CICERO could be instrumental in conflict mediation by identifying common ground between adversaries and simulating potential agreements.
However, the integration of AI into diplomatic processes raises fundamental concerns. While AI can model negotiation strategies and predict likely outcomes, its ability to truly understand the complexities of international relations remains questionable. The key issue is whether AI is merely mimicking diplomatic behavior based on existing patterns or developing independent strategic reasoning that could contribute meaningfully to global diplomacy.
Hagglebots: AI in negotiation
While CICERO operates in a multiagent, long-term strategic environment, Hagglebots represent another frontier of AI in negotiation. These AI systems are designed for bargaining, trade deals and economic negotiations. They rely on game theory, reinforcement learning and natural language processing to optimize agreements in bilateral or multilateral settings.
Unlike CICERO, which excels in high-level strategic alliance-building, Hagglebots focus on economic trade-offs, pricing strategies and contract formulation. Their relevance to diplomacy lies in their ability to automate trade negotiations, potentially expediting international economic agreements. Additionally, they can analyze market conditions and predict how economic factors influence diplomatic relations. In the context of global policymaking, Hagglebots could assist in sanction policies and trade conflicts by modeling economic retaliation strategies.
Despite their distinct applications, both CICERO and Hagglebots share a common technological foundation. They rely on reinforcement learning to optimize long-term strategies, use natural language processing to engage in human-like dialogue, and employ trust and reputation modeling to predict how negotiation partners will respond to different diplomatic tactics. These AI models highlight the increasing convergence of AI, diplomacy and economics, suggesting that autonomous systems may soon play a pivotal role in international trade, treaty negotiations and global economic policymaking.
Indications of Turing Test
The question of whether AI can replace human diplomats ties back to a long-standing measure of artificial intelligence: the Turing Test. Proposed by Alan Turing in 1950, the test assesses whether an AI system can engage in a conversation that is indistinguishable from that of a human. While CICERO and Hagglebots demonstrate advanced linguistic and strategic capabilities, they do not yet exhibit true understanding, consciousness or independent judgment.
One of the main limitations of AI-driven diplomacy is that it often prioritizes deception over intelligence. An AI can pass the Turing Test by mimicking human negotiation tactics, but this does not equate to genuine diplomatic reasoning. Moreover, ethical and accountability concerns arise when AI systems are integrated into decision-making processes. Unlike human diplomats, AI lacks moral responsibility and legal accountability in negotiation outcomes. Another challenge lies in bias and interpretability. AI systems are trained on historical data, meaning they may inherit biases from past diplomatic failures or conflicts. This raises concerns about whether AI-generated diplomatic strategies will perpetuate historical injustices or create unintended geopolitical tensions.
While large language models such as GPT-4 and CICERO can convincingly simulate diplomacy, they remain constrained by pattern recognition rather than authentic strategic reasoning. The real test for AI in diplomacy will not be its ability to deceive human negotiators but its potential to offer new, creative diplomatic solutions that humans might overlook.
Future of diplomacy
The emergence of CICERO and Hagglebots marks a paradigm shift in AI’s role in international relations. As AI becomes increasingly integrated into strategic decision-making, negotiation analysis and diplomatic forecasting, it will reshape the way states engage in diplomacy. However, the application of AI in global governance must be approached with caution.
Policymakers and international organizations must consider how AI-driven negotiations should be regulated to prevent unintended escalation in diplomatic conflicts. Additionally, human oversight must remain central in AI-assisted diplomatic decisions, ensuring that AI recommendations align with broader geopolitical and ethical considerations. The ethical implications of AI in international relations, particularly concerning accountability and transparency, must also be addressed to prevent AI from being exploited for strategic manipulation or coercion.
While CICERO’s success in alliance-building and Hagglebots’ precision in economic negotiations demonstrate AI’s growing capabilities, human diplomats will remain essential. The art of diplomacy is not solely about winning negotiations; it is about preserving peace, managing conflicts and fostering long-term international cooperation.
As we enter an era where AI becomes a diplomatic tool rather than a mere analytical instrument, the international community must ensure that technological advancements align with global stability, ethical governance and human values. The true test of AI in diplomacy will not be whether it can pass the Turing Test, but whether it can contribute to a more cooperative, stable and just international order.
