Vilnius summit: Turning point in Türkiye-West relations?

Türkiye and its Western allies within the NATO alliance have been passing through a tense period due to the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian War that erupted in February 2022. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European countries close to Russia have perceived a threat from Moscow. Therefore, large-scale measures were taken by these countries and their allies in the West. Within this context, the NATO alliance and its enlargement policy have come to prominence.

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Vilnius summit Turning point in Türkiye-West relations
Türkiye's diplomatic activism and Vilnius summit

Türkiye's diplomatic activism and Vilnius summit

Türkiye gained the world’s attention yet again – this time, due to its diplomatic activism. Ten days before the grain deal’s expiry, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Istanbul. At the same time, diplomats and journalists continue to wonder whether Türkiye will approve Sweden’s NATO membership application ahead of the Vilnius Summit on July 11-12, 2023. Furthermore, Erdoğan is scheduled to visit the Gulf states on July 17-19 and host Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on July 27.

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) provincial leaders Thursday that his movement wanted to capture opposition-held municipalities, starting with Istanbul and Ankara, in the March 2024 local elections.

The latest crisis in Turkey-EU relations has erupted over the increasingly frequent rejection of Turkish citizens' Schengen visa applications in the past year by EU countries.

Sweden made headlines in Türkiye again this week by permitting yet another Quran burning under police protection on the first day of Qurban Bayram, also known as Eid al-Adha. That heinous act took place near a mosque in Stockholm, as had another burning in January, and had absolutely nothing to do with freedom of expression. Quite the contrary, it was a hate crime targeting Muslims and an obvious act of provocation.

As we witnessed one of the most significant elections on the centennial of the Turkish Republic’s founding, Insight Turkey proudly presents a special issue that meticulously evaluates the elections and examines how Türkiye’s foreign policy will be shaped in their aftermath and we hope and believe that the insightful and stimulating debates raised on the issue will be helpful to our readers.

Is Erdoğan responsible for Turkish opposition's crisis?

Losing the May 2023 elections dragged Türkiye’s opposition parties into a crisis of “change” and “taking stock.” The leadership fight within the Republican People’s Party (CHP) continues to capture the Turkish people’s attention.

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Is Erdoğan responsible for Turkish opposition's crisis
Table for 16' discourse deepening crisis of Turkish opposition

'Table for 16' discourse, deepening crisis of Turkish opposition

Türkiye’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, refuses to change. On Tuesday, he described President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a threat to the country’s survival. His combative tone was obviously part of an attempt to resist calls for change from within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). That is why Kılıçdaroğlu said that he would be willing to enlarge the opposition bloc popularly known as the "table for six" to “bring Türkiye into the light” – in defense of his decision to form a grand coalition ahead of the May 2023 elections.

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Since last month’s elections, the Turkish people have been talking about “change” within the main opposition party. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) supporters and Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, started that debate.

The world system has undergone a large-scale transition for the last two decades. The ultimate victory of the United States declared after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 lasted only for a decade. In spite of giving an effective answer to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. has been unable to maximize its national interests at the global scale and provide international peace and stability.

Türkiye will preserve its “strategic autonomy” and redouble its efforts to promote normalization and stronger relations based on “mutual interests.”

This analysis will first address the factors that will determine the direction of Turkish foreign policy in the new era. It will then provide evaluations regarding a possible approach to its relations with the actors involved in the most important and prioritized issues of Turkish foreign policy, with a geographical perspective.

With the manifestation of the national will evident, it is now time for Türkiye and the West to reframe the post-election concordance path, create a new road map, resume economic cooperation and revisit the political common ground. The approach should focus on a renewed consensus on economic and political collaborations. They will undoubtedly be better off with more cooperation, rather than competition or just a loose liaison. The political (even ideological) differences should not cloud coherence, the ability to cooperate, and post-ballot collaboration.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Azerbaijan earlier this week.

Since the restructuring of the state administration in the wake of the failed coup attempt in July 2016, Türkiye has been following a holistic foreign policy. Several significant changes were made to increase the effectiveness of Turkish foreign policy.

The Ukrainian forces are launching a counteroffensive, aiming to achieve a decisive result and bring an end to the Russian occupation. However, due to their lack of air superiority, they risk suffering significant losses in this attack. The outcome of this offensive will determine whether discussions about the end of the war can begin or if the conflict will prolong for years to come.

One of the most important transformations of the Turkish political system was realized after the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016. Türkiye has successfully restructured its domestic political system and redefined the responsibilities of many state institutions. Among others, foreign policy actors were diversified. Many governmental institutions such as the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) and the Presidency of Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB), have begun to play effective roles in the field of foreign policy.

Over the weekend, President Erdoğan and his new Cabinet started working toward the “Century of Türkiye.” The Turkish leader has many items on his diplomatic agenda – as the number of world leaders congratulating him and attending his inauguration ceremony suggests. Over the following years, Türkiye will promote peace, stability and cooperation in its neighborhood, consolidate its continent-wide initiatives and strive toward a more just world order.

The most common question on most minds nowadays would probably be the concern regarding how Türkiye is planning to bring inflation down and prop up the Turkish lira. Furthermore, why won’t policymakers raise interest rates like the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB)?

Türkiye Voted | Domestic and International Implications

Turkish foreign policy is faced with the task of preserving the gains it has made in various critical issues, from Libya to Azerbaijan, Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, while improving economic relations with Europe, increasing effectiveness within NATO, and managing the impacts of global power shifts.