Cease-fire on for 4th time in Idlib; what’s next?

The deal signed between Turkey and Russia eased the tension in Idlib by declaring a cease-fire once again. Yet, despite the positive intentions of both parties, the unreliable nature of the Syrian regime raises cautiousness while increasing the responsibility on the shoulders of the Turkish and Russian sides as guarantor states

More
Cease-fire on for 4th time in Idlib what s next
Traces of the Syrian war in Turkey

Traces of the Syrian war in Turkey

For days, both Syrian public opinion and the world have been discussing the question of “What is Turkey doing in Idlib, Syria?” If you are really curious about this question, you must have been born after 2015. Turkey has intervened in northern Syria for both humanitarian and security reasons due to a number of problems, such as nearly 4 million refugees coming to the country during the nine-year war, instability spreading from Syria and dozens of people killed in missile strikes on Turkish soil, which were launched from across the Syrian border.

More

It is distressing to witness the lack of European concern about the humanitarian disaster in Idlib and how Turkey has been abandoned in its fight for civilian safety

Turkey's sole wish in Idlib is to maintain domestic and regional stability. This is what all involved actors must be aware of first.

The deadline for Bashar Assad’s retreat from Idlib has passed. Turkey remains committed to the Sochi agreement..

It has been more than eight years since the Syrian regime began one of the most brutal assaults against its own citizens, using every violent instrument at its disposal. The international community in these eight years stood idly by while the number of casualties and displaced people increased every day. The international bodies who should have been monitoring the situation stopped counting the number of people who died as a result of these atrocious attacks after half a million.

Renewable alliances and maunderers in Idlib

Russia's eagerness to have a presence in the Mediterranean is an old, well-known and deep-rooted policy. Syria, the country that could offer Russia the best chance of reaching the Mediterranean, presented an incredible opportunity for the country to implement its policy of reaching warmer seas when Bashar Assad called for help from Moscow in 2015. Russia has already developed good relations with countries such as Iran and Syria to contain NATO countries and U.S. allies in this region.

More
Renewable alliances and maunderers in Idlib
Is there any hope for Idlib solution

Is there any hope for Idlib solution?

To solve the crisis in Idlib, the international community is hoping for the success of a four-nation summit and fresh diplomatic talks. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron, scheduled to take place on March 5, keeps alive the hope of ending what the U.N. called “the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century” diplomatically.

More

The recent escalation of violence between Turkey and the Assad regime in violation of the Sochi deal marks a significantly tense moment that may risk a deterioration of relations between Ankara and Moscow. Turkey has given an ultimatum to the Assad regime to withdraw its troops outside of the zone encircled by Turkey's military observation points until the end of February. So far, the Assad regime has resisted the idea of withdrawal and continued to expand further into the territory. However, Turkey expects its Russian counterparts to either convince or force the Assad regime to comply with the conditions laid out as part of the Sochi deal that was signed in September 2018.

The concept of human security has emerged as an essential paradigm for understanding global vulnerabilities as part of a shift that goes beyond traditional security concerns. According to this paradigm, the main focus of security should be human beings rather than political entities such as states and proposes a multidisciplinary understanding of security covering many fields, such as international relations, strategic studies, human rights and development studies.

Turkey faces growing pressure to retreat from three locations: Idlib, where Turkish forces are trying to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe; Libya, with which the Turks concluded a defense pact; and the Eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey is defending its rights under international law.

By the end of February, Turkey expects Bashar Assad to withdraw to the agreed-upon cease-fire line stipulated in the Sochi agreement. Yet, nothing has come out of diplomatic negotiations between Ankara and Moscow.

Andrej Kreutz raised a poignant question in his book from 2007, "Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe," well before the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011. Even though Russia has been an important player in the Middle East since the Cold War era, its influence in the region has burgeoned since Syrian President Bashar Assad invited Moscow into the Syrian civil war in 2015.

The Syrian crisis is one of the best examples of this approach. The Bashar Assad regime has killed more than half a million innocent civilians by using prohibited weapons of mass destruction, including barrel bombs and chemical weapons..

Turkey and Pakistan have always had a particularly close relationship. During the Turkish War of Independence, India's Muslim community contributed to the war effort. That affinity evolved into a deeply-rooted fraternity upon the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Turkey's objectives amid the recent tensions in Idlib are clear and the scope of a possible military operation would be limited..

Turkey is fighting on three fronts to manage the Idlib crisis: a military operation, diplomacy and international public opinion.

Two weeks ago in this column, it was stated that the new coronavirus epidemic should serve as a wake-up call for the international community to better prepare for the next outbreak.

It is true President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have had an amenable relationship. Turkey and Russia are also both regional actors that share partnerships on many issues. The recent cooperation between the two countries is not as black and white as foreign affairs and alliances between countries were during the Cold War. To call this period of cooperation a "honeymoon," however, would be incorrect.

The 'Deal of the Century' announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 29 has been handled by the global media in a way that can be considered novel. That discourse, the like of which we have seldom ever encountered, was reflected both in written content and in photos. Images provided by global news agencies like Reuters and AP revealed content that can be viewed as "critical of Israel." Various mainstream media organizations ranging from The Guardian, Washington Post and BBC to The New York Times have published pieces and opinions criticizing the "Deal of the Century."

Even though the Syrian crisis continues to influence politics in the Middle East and the global balance, the European Union and major European powers, like the U.K., Germany and France, have continued to be the most reluctant and ineffective actors dealing with the crisis.